KRİZİN AVRUPA KARAYOLU YÜK SEKTÖRÜNE ETKİSİ

In a recent submission to an expert meeting organised by the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Energy & Transport on the impact of the economic crisis on the road haulage sectors, John Manners-Bell, Ti’s CEO, analysed the extent and impact of the downturn.

The impact of the economic crisis on the European road haulage sector

It is exceptionally difficult to get an accurate view on how the road freight industry in Europe is performing. The sheer level of fragmentation means that visibility of market trends is very low, and specific governmental statistics lag many months behind reality.

Therefore to gain any idea of what is happening in the market not only do we need to analyse the performance of the handful of companies which report quarterly financial figures, we need to look at a range of what can be called 'proxy indicators'. These include economic, trade as well as measurements of not-so-opaque competing or complementary modes.

For instance we know that GDP is forecast to fall by between 3-5% in most major economies in 2009.  However the link between GDP and road freight output has become decoupled in recent years, due in part to the internationalisation of supply chains. 

Reports from the companies which have reported their road freight performance – Norbert Dentressangle, Kuehne + Nagel, DSV and DHL for instance – reveal a drop in revenues of between 18-25%, more in line with the decline in trade volumes.

These same trade figures show a bottoming out in the second quarter of 2009 and this may be more relevant when trying to determine whether the road freight industry is showing any signs of recovery.

We also have figures for two important international road freight lanes which can allow us to gauge the impact of the downturn. In the second quarter of 2009 the total number of goods vehicles travelling from Great Britain to mainland Europe was 590,000, a decrease of 19% on the same quarter in 2008. The downturn on the Trans-Alpine routes was even more pronounced. Swiss-Italian traffic development in the first half 2009 for Hupac, the intermodal rail operator, was down 24% from 246,625 to 187,859 units.

However complicating matters is the diverging performance of many important sectors in the industry. Those road freight companies for instance dedicated to the automotive sector will have seen volumes plunge, whereas those playing in the retail/consumer sector (outside of big ticket white and brown goods) will have been much less badly affected. Both sectors saw an improvement in output in the second quarter of 2009, which augurs well for the road freight sector.

Other measures we can look to include sea, air cargo and rail freight indicators – after all the vast majority of goods handled by these modes are ultimately collected or delivered by road. The major ports, such as Antwerp, Rotterdam and Hamburg, have seen volumes fall by between 18-25%; air cargo volume, as reported by IATA, have fallen by over 20% compared to the first eight months of 2008 and rail freight has fared even worse with a drop in volumes of about a third from its peak in 2008.

Given that volumes in the road freight industry have fallen by such a magnitude, what will be the impact on the companies operating in the sector? We believe that there will be long lasting consequences for medium-sized players – those with the large overheads will have found it impossible to downsize at the same rate as the market. At present they will be burning through working capital, and have a high risk of failure. The larger companies, such as DHL, Schenker and Kuehne + Nagel, will find it easier to ride out the economic storm. As 'asset light' operators, they will even be able to benefit to some degree from the surplus capacity in the market. At the other end of the spectrum, the micro and small enterprises will experience an increased level of 'churn' as existing players drop out, and new companies enter the market. Net increase or decrease of company numbers will be negligible.

As these trends play out, what will occur is a 'collapse of the middle market'. The consequences of this will be felt perhaps not in quantity (at present there is no sign that the supply and demand is coming into equilibrium) but in terms of quality. Many of the middle sized companies provide essential services to certain sector or geographical niches and will be severely missed by their clients.

There are no indications that consolidation of any scale is occurring in the market. Latest figures supplied by PricewaterhouseCoopers show that although merger and acquisition volumes are down to 2005 levels, their values have declined dramatically. This suggests that deals are taking place, but at the margins of the industry. The larger companies are not using the depressed market as an opportunity to grab share.

In conclusion, we believe that the market downturn has 'bottomed out' in the second quarter of the year with underlying production volumes and trade volumes stabilising. However confidence in the road freight sector has yet to return – this is evidenced by the continued stagnation of the commercial vehicle market. Although we expect an upturn in 2010, the recovery will be slow. A return to 2008 levels is not expected before 2012.

Kaynak: LH